Program(s) in charge: Ecosystem & Bycatch Program
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- Produce forecasted dynamic species and vessel distributions under different anomaly and climate change scenarios in the near, mid and long-term based on changing environmental drivers.
- Quantify shifts in overlap among species and vessels given shifting habitat for both.
- Understand the impact of climate anomalies, changing oceanographic conditions and future scenarios on forecasted dynamic species and vessel distributions with a specific focus on forecast skill and accounting for uncertainty.
- Balancing short, medium and long-term sustainability, food security and economic objectives in a changing environment is a challenge to fisheries management.
- Current conservation measures have not been specifically designed to adapt to a changing environment, particularly in the medium-long term.
- Previous research has documented distributional shifts of pelagic predators and fishing effort in response to climate-driven changes, but no particular study has been conducted for the tropical tuna and bycatch species in the EPO.
- A better understanding of climate-induced shifts in the spatial distribution of target and non-target species is needed to develop climate-resilient fisheries.
- Relevance for management
- Understanding tuna stocks and fishers’ response to medium and long-term changing ocean conditions is important to develop subsequent policy and management strategies and ensure climate-resilient fisheries in the EPO.
- 24 months, extended to 36 months due to COVID-19
- Workplan and status
- 2021 – Develop vessel distributions models; gather model outputs from target species; assemble projected environmental data.
- 2022 – Develop forecasted target and vessel distributions; target species and vessels models validation; gather distribution model outputs from bycatch species; develop forecasted bycatch distributions; bycatch models validations.
- 2023 – preparation of dissemination material; present at the SAC, the Bycatch WG and other IATTC meetings of interest.
- External collaborators
- San Diego State University-Conservation Ecology Lab, The Ocean Conservancy
- A series of climate change medium and long-term projected dynamic species distributions for both target and non-target species and vessels.
- Compilation of reliable environmental data for different climate scenarios.
- Web-based tools and forecast products. Open source code to allow replication.
- Dissemination material, including documents and presentations for the Scientific Advisory Committee and the Bycatch working Group in 2021 and 2022.