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Project H.1.f - Improving the methodology of the risk analysis

01 Jun 2021 - 31 Dec 2024

Program(s) in charge: Stock Assessment Program
Improve the risk analysis methodology by defining more objective, transparent, and automated diagnostic-based metrics for weighting fishery stock assessment model ensembles.
  • There is uncertainty about the main assumptions in the tropical tuna assessments
  • Risk analysis was developed and applied to yellowfin and bigeye tuna
  • The risk analysis was based on several different diagnostics, but there evaluation for determining weighing scores was subjective and based on expert opinion
  • A more objective and automated approach to determining scores from diagnostic and other metrics is needed
Relevance for management
Risk analysis has been used to provide management advice for bigeye and yellowfin tuna and is proposed to use for skipjack tuna.
3 years, starting 2021
Workplan and status
  • Jan-Feb 2022: Workshop on diagnostics
  • Fall 2022: Workshop on objective and automatic weighting of metrics
  • 2023: Automate weighing of metrics
  • 2024: Apply the risk analysis to the three tropical species
External collaborators
Scientists from CPCs and other organizations participate in the workshops
  • Software to automate calculating metrics and conducting risk analysis
  • SAC documents
Updated date: 01 May 2023
Progress summary for the reporting period
  • Jan/Feb 2022: Workshop conducted on diagnostics
  • November 2022: Workshop on model weighting conducted
Challenges and key lessons learnt
  • The COVID pandemic forced the workshops to be virtual, however they very successful and due to the virtual format there were participants than usually at the CAPAM workshops
  • The chat feature of the virtual meeting encouraged more people to participating in discussions than usually would participate
  • Running the workshops both in terms of logistics and scientific content takes a substantial amount of staff time
WS-RISK-1 Report
WS-RISK-2 Report
The WS-RISK-2 Report proposes a framework for conducting the next risk analysis for tropical tunas in the EPO