2nd Workshop on improving the risk analysis for the tropical tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean: model weighting for integrated stock assessments

2nd Workshop on improving the risk analysis for the tropical tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean: model weighting for integrated stock assessments
28 Nov - 02 Dec 2022

Parent event: 2nd Workshop on improving the risk analysis for the tropical tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean: model weighting for integrated stock assessments

Meeting notice

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Meeting reports

2nd Workshop on improving the risk analysis for the tropical tunas in the EPO model weighting for integrated stock assessments

Agenda

2nd Workshop on improving the risk analysis for the tropical tunas in the EPO

	Agenda items	Documents
1	Monday-Welcome
2	Introduction
3	Model weighting in the IATTC risk analysis approach-Mark Maunder
4	A review of model averaging and the way forward
5	Summary of ICES 2022 Network Session on ensemble models
6	Tuesday-Which models to consider and what measures (diagnostics) should be used to exclude models
7	Using diagnostics to fix and eliminate models when constructing an ensemble: Mark Maunder/Felipe Carvalho
8	Discussion
9	What measures to use in weighting and how to determine the weight for each metric
10	What measures to use in weighting and how to determine the weight for each metric?: Philipp Neubauer
11	Using hindcasting to weight models: TBA
12	Considerations when integrating multiple stock assessment models: Allan Hicks
13	Discussion
14	Wednesday-How to combine weights
15	Key decisions: How should ensembles be constructed and combined?: Nicholas Ducharme-Barth
16	Implementation of Monte-Carlo Bootstrap Ensembles to assess uncertainty and provide management advice: Matt Vincent
17	There’s more to ensemble modelling than model weighting: Michael Spence
18	Discussion
19	Thursday-Applications
20	Practical applications of diagnostic weighing in ensemble models: three case studies, Northern shrimp, Adriatic sole and Gulf of Bothnian vendace: Massimiliano Cardinale
21	Application of model weighting in the context of EPO tuna assessment and management
22	A proposed approach of developing and weighting an ensemble for use with tropical tunas in the EPO
23	Discussion
24	Friday - Discussion (if needed)

Presentations

Considerations when integrating multiple stock assessment models
IATTC plan for model weighting in the yellowfin and bigeye tuna stock assessment
IATTC risk analysis
Implementation of Monte-Carlo bootstrap ensembles to assess uncertainty and provide management advice
Key decisions - How should ensembles be constructed and combined
Model weighting for integrated stock assessment
Model weighting using cross validation and hindcasting
Practical applications of diagnostic weighing in ensemble models
There is more to ensemble models than model weights
Using diagnostics to fix and eliminate models when constructing an ensemble

Background documents